December 2024 was the first month Australian property values fell nationally in nearly two years. CoreLogic's data clocked a 0.1% dip — modest on paper, but the direction matters as much as the number. Here's what it actually means for buyers, sellers and investors across greater Sydney and beyond.
The Numbers Behind the Decline
Sydney led the retreat with a 0.6% fall in December, taking the combined capital city monthly figure negative for the first time since January 2023. Melbourne dropped 0.7%. Brisbane, which had run 25 consecutive months of growth and posted a staggering 15.4% annual gain in the year to June 2024, finally recorded its first monthly decline. Even Perth — the star performer of the 2024 cycle with 24.6% annual growth — slowed noticeably.
The silver lining: for the full 2024 calendar year, national values still rose 4.9%, adding roughly $38,000 to the median home value. So we're not talking about a crash. We're talking about a market that ran hard, met a wall of affordability constraints, and is now adjusting. That's a different thing entirely.
What's Happening in South-West Sydney
Greater Sydney's outer suburban markets — including Camden, Campbelltown and the Macarthur region — have shown more resilience than the inner-city figures suggest. Oran Park's median house price has remained relatively stable around $950,000, supported by genuine owner-occupier demand and a population that's still growing as the Western Sydney Airport precinct draws investment and infrastructure spending.
Narellan and Leppington have seen softening in the townhouse and duplex segment, particularly where developers over-estimated price points in 2023. But detached houses on decent blocks in Gregory Hills and Spring Farm are still transacting well when they're priced correctly. The difference between a quick sale and a prolonged listing in this market right now comes down almost entirely to the first asking price.
What to Do If You're Buying, Investing or Refinancing
For first-home buyers, a softer December is opportunity. Fewer competing buyers, more vendor flexibility, and — critically — rate cuts arriving in 2025 that will lift your borrowing capacity as prices stabilise. Getting pre-approved now, before the next rate cut reinvigorates buyer competition, is the smartest move.
For investors, this is the moment to get selective. Yields in south-west Sydney have crept up as prices softened slightly — gross yields of 3.5–4% on detached houses are now more common in Campbelltown and Claymore than they were two years ago. That's still not spectacular, but it's improved, and the land-to-asset ratio in outer Sydney remains favourable long-term.
For those refinancing, Michael's advice is straightforward: don't wait for the market to recover or deteriorate further. Your rate is the variable you can control right now. With lenders competing hard for refinance business through late 2024 and into 2025, there are meaningful savings available — often $300–600 per month on a $700,000 loan — regardless of what the broader market is doing.
Don't let market uncertainty hold you back. Speak with Michael and the Mankin Finance team to understand what this means for your situation specifically.
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