Jacinta Allan became Victorian Premier in September 2023, succeeding Daniel Andrews after his shock resignation following 27 years in the Labor movement and the second-longest Labor premiership in Victoria's history. Allan, who had been elected to parliament in 1999 at age 25 as the youngest female Victorian MP, stepped down as Labor leader on 27 July 2026 after losing the confidence of a majority of caucus members. On 14 August 2026 she confirmed she would not contest the November state election. Deputy Premier Ben Carroll was sworn in as her successor. In a statement that captured the weight of the moment, Allan said: "I do not remember a time when our foundations have felt so unsteady." She donated her $200,000 local campaign fund to the Labor party on her way out.
Why Allan Lost the Room
The proximate causes of her fall were several. Plummeting opinion polling. Discontent in rural and regional communities over the government's handling of the fire services levy. And most significantly: allegations of criminal infiltration of government construction sites linked to the CFMEU - the Construction, Forestry and Maritime Employees Union - which was placed under federal administration in August 2024 after the Albanese federal government acted on sustained allegations of corruption, bikie involvement, and standover tactics on major construction sites. Victorian Labor's close historical relationship with the CFMEU - which had for decades provided significant organisational and financial support to the party - became a major political liability when those allegations became undeniable.
The CFMEU was placed under federal administration in August 2024 after sustained allegations of corruption, bikie links, and standover tactics on Victorian construction sites - a crisis that shadowed Victorian Labor's relationship with the construction sector for the remainder of the Allan government.
The Big Build and Its Legacy
The infrastructure program that defined the later Andrews era and ran through Allan's tenure is known as the Big Build: tens of billions of dollars invested across the Metro Tunnel, West Gate Tunnel, Suburban Rail Loop, and a range of other rail and road megaprojects. The Big Build transformed Victoria's infrastructure profile, but it also became associated with significant cost overruns - the Suburban Rail Loop Stage 1 estimate, originally cited at $34.5 billion, was subsequently revised substantially upward; the West Gate Tunnel grew from an original estimate of approximately $6.7 billion to more than $10.1 billion - and with the construction site conduct issues that ultimately contributed to the CFMEU administration. The program also contributed to a significant increase in Victoria's state debt, which in turn created pressure to find new revenue sources.
The Land Tax Expansion and Its Investor Impact
One of the most consequential property-related decisions of the Allan government's tenure was not a new policy - it inherited it from the Andrews era. In 2023, the Victorian government significantly expanded land tax, adding a temporary levy on investment properties above certain thresholds to fund COVID-era debt. The levy applies on top of existing land tax obligations and created a materially higher holding cost for Victorian investment properties. The practical effect on the investment property market has been notable: investor attrition from Victoria has been documented by industry data, with some investors choosing to redirect capital to NSW, Queensland, or Western Australia where land tax settings are less punitive. Ben Carroll inherits this policy setting as he leads Victoria into the November election.
What the November Election Means for Property Policy
Victoria is heading to a state election in November 2026. The Liberal opposition under John Pesutto is positioned to contest government for the first time since 2014 - a 12-year stint in opposition that mirrors some of the longer federal opposition periods in Australian political history. The election outcome matters for property policy across several dimensions. Land tax settings - whether the COVID levy is wound back or made permanent. First home buyer schemes and stamp duty exemptions. Planning and density policy: the Allan government's Plan for Victoria pursued density targets around train stations, and whether Carroll will maintain or modify that approach has direct implications for the supply pipeline. For investors, the most significant question is whether the land tax expansion will be wound back under any government that emerges from November.
What This Means for NSW-Based Property Investors
For Mankin Finance's clients in Oran Park, Campbelltown, Camden, and the broader Macarthur region, Victorian property has been a less attractive proposition than it was five years ago - and the political uncertainty of the current period adds to that calculus. NSW land tax settings, while not negligible for investors with significant portfolios, have not undergone the same scale of expansion as Victoria's. For buyers comparing interstate investment options, the comparative cost of holding in NSW versus Victoria has shifted meaningfully in NSW's favour. The November election outcome will clarify whether that differential narrows.
If you are reviewing your property investment strategy - whether in NSW or considering interstate - book a free 30-minute session with Michael.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Ben Carroll reverse the Victorian land tax expansion?
Carroll has not, as of September 2026, committed to reversing the COVID land tax levy that significantly increased holding costs for Victorian investment property. The levy was framed as temporary when introduced in 2023, but the fiscal pressure created by Victoria's state debt position makes unwinding it politically complex. The November election will be the key test: if the Liberals form government, they have more policy flexibility to adjust the settings, though they also inherit the same debt constraints that led Labor to introduce the levy in the first place.
What does the Victorian election mean for property investors?
The November 2026 Victorian election has direct implications for land tax, planning rules, and first home buyer schemes. If Labor retains government under Carroll, the land tax expansion is likely to persist in some form. If the Liberals win under Pesutto, there is a stated disposition toward reducing the investment property tax burden, though the extent of any changes depends on the fiscal position the incoming government inherits. Either outcome will clarify the medium-term cost structure for Victorian investment property.
Is now a good time to invest in Victorian property given the political uncertainty?
Political uncertainty is one factor in an investment decision that also includes rental yield, growth potential, financing costs, and your own tax position. Victoria's property values have underperformed relative to other states over the past 18 months, partly as a consequence of the land tax expansion driving investor attrition and reducing demand at the margin. If the post-election environment produces more investor-friendly policy settings, there is a case that Victorian property is currently undervalued relative to its interstate peers. That thesis carries political risk that does not exist in the same form in NSW. The right answer depends on your specific portfolio composition and risk profile.
Reviewing your investment strategy in light of the current Victorian political environment?
Michael works with buyers and investors across the Macarthur region and advises on loan structure for both NSW and interstate property. Call him on +61 420 699 983 or book a free 30-minute session at tidycal.com/3qr45gm/30-minute-meeting.
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