Market Update
The Cotality September 2026 Housing Chart Pack, covering data to 31 August 2026, confirms that the national property correction is broadening and deepening. National dwelling values fell 3.1% over the rolling quarter and are now up just 2.7% over the year. That annual figure, while still positive, represents a sharp deceleration from the 10%-plus annual growth recorded through much of 2024 and early 2025.
The August 2026 monthly reading was negative across nearly every capital city. The breadth of the decline is the most telling feature of this report. When every major market moves in the same direction, it reflects a systemic shift in buyer sentiment and borrowing capacity, not a localised correction in any one city.
The divergence between capital cities and regional Australia is one of the more striking themes in the September 2026 data. Capital city dwelling values fell 3.7% over the quarter. Regional markets declined by just 1.2% over the same period. The gap reflects something structural: capital city pricing was far more speculative at the cycle peak, and the unwinding is steeper.
Capital city buyers are also disproportionately dependent on high leverage. In Sydney and Melbourne, where median home values sit well above $1 million and $800,000 respectively, even a modest increase in the cost of borrowing translates to a significant reduction in purchasing power. Regional buyers tend to be less leveraged and less exposed to serviceability fluctuations of the same magnitude.
The table below presents the key Cotality figures for each capital, covering the three months to August 2026 and the 12-month period.
| City | Quarterly | Annual | August monthly | Days on market |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | -4.7% | -4.6% | -1.4% | 45 |
| Melbourne | -3.9% | -4.7% | -1.1% | 43 |
| Brisbane | -2.7% | +10.8% | -1.0% | 35 |
| Adelaide | -1.6% | +8.6% | -0.8% | 33 |
| Perth | -3.2% | +15.6% | -0.9% | 22 |
| Hobart | -0.2% | +8.1% | -0.2% | 31 |
| Darwin | +0.9% | +14.6% | +0.6% | 34 |
| Canberra | -2.8% | -0.4% | -1.1% | 51 |
Darwin stands alone as the only capital city recording quarterly and monthly growth. Canberra, with 51 days on market, has the longest selling times of all capitals. Sydney's -4.6% annual reading reflects the fastest high-end correction, with upper-quartile values down 5.7% over the quarter alone.
Total listings sitting across the market reached 139,167 in the four weeks to 6 September, up 18.1% year-on-year and sitting 2.2% above the five-year average. That rising total listings figure does not reflect a surge in new supply. New listings over the same period fell 3.1% year-on-year and sit 6.4% below the five-year average. What is happening is that properties are simply not clearing. They are accumulating on the market because buyers are not transacting at current asking prices.
Median days on market nationally is now 39 days, up from 28 days a year ago. That is an 11-day blowout in selling time in 12 months. Median vendor discount has widened to 4.0% nationally, against 3.3% a year ago. In capital cities the discount is 4.2%. Vendors are asking for more concessions and still taking longer to sell.
The four-week auction clearance rate sits at 49.5% nationally, below the 50% threshold since early June 2026. Below 50% is a signal that buyers and sellers cannot agree on price in real time. It is not a catastrophic reading, but it is the most reliable leading indicator the market has that the balance of power remains with buyers.
Regional markets are significantly outperforming their capital city counterparts on an annual basis. Regional WA has gained 16.7% over the year. Regional SA is up 11.4%. Regional Tasmania has risen 12.7%. Regional QLD added 9.1%. Even Regional NSW, which sits closest to the most expensive capital city in the country, is up 5.3% annually against Sydney's -4.6%.
The driver is affordability. Buyers priced out of capital cities, and investors seeking yields that capital city assets can no longer provide, have been directing capital toward regional markets for three years. The trend was present before the rate cycle began, but it has accelerated as capital city prices have corrected while regional supply has remained constrained.
For buyers in the Macarthur corridor, including Oran Park, Gregory Hills, Narellan, and Camden, the Cotality September 2026 data contains both challenge and opportunity. The challenge is that a softer market can affect confidence. Buyers who are waiting for a bottom often do not recognise it until it has passed.
The opportunity is that seller conditions in outer south-west Sydney are genuinely more favourable than they have been in three years. Properties are sitting longer. The premium suburbs of Sydney are correcting far harder. Lower and middle quartile markets, which dominate the Macarthur corridor, have shown more resilience than the premium segments experiencing 5.7% quarterly falls in Sydney.
For buyers who are pre-approved and clear on their numbers, this is a moment where patience and preparation pay off. Michael works with buyers across the region every week. Book a free 30-minute session to understand your exact borrowing position before making any decision.
The Cotality September 2026 data shows a correction, not a crash. A crash is typically defined as a peak-to-trough decline exceeding 20%. National values are down 3.1% quarterly and 2.7% annual growth is decelerating, but distressed listings remain low, dwelling approvals are rising 9.0% year-on-year, and Australia's underlying population and housing demand remain strong. The market is repricing, but the structural support from undersupply has not disappeared.
Regional markets fell just 1.2% over the quarter compared to 3.7% for the combined capitals. Regional affordability is the primary factor. Buyers in regional markets are typically less leveraged and less sensitive to rate movements. The normalisation of remote and hybrid working has also proven stickier than many expected, maintaining demand in lifestyle and commuter-belt regional towns. Infrastructure investment, particularly in WA, SA and Tasmania, is also directly supporting local economies and property demand.
Whether 2026 is a good time to buy depends on your personal financial position, time horizon, and the specific market you are targeting. What the Cotality data does confirm is that buyers now have more negotiating power than at any point since early 2022. Days on market have stretched to 39 days nationally, vendor discounting has widened to 4.0%, and clearance rates below 50% indicate that buyers hold the balance of power at present. For buyers who are pre-approved and patient, the current conditions represent the most buyer-friendly environment in several years.
Michael works with buyers, investors, and refinancers across south-west Sydney. A free 30-minute call will tell you exactly where you stand and what your options are in the September 2026 market.
