If you've been watching your suburb's auction results lately, you've probably noticed something: the rooms aren't as crowded. The frantic bidding wars of 2021 and 2022 are a distant memory, and right now, buyers in many parts of Australia have something they haven't had in years — breathing room.
Where the Cooling Is Most Pronounced
CoreLogic's August 2024 data showed Sydney's median house price edging back slightly after posting 8.3% annual growth in the year to March. Melbourne's inner and middle rings — Moonee Ponds, Brunswick, Richmond — have seen vendors accepting prices 3–5% below early-2024 highs. Hobart, which ran the hardest during COVID, has softened around 6% from its 2022 peak, with vacancy rates climbing back above 2% for the first time since 2019.
South-west Sydney — our own backyard — has held up better than most. Oran Park's median house price sits around $950,000, Camden LGA clearance rates are still tracking near 60%, and Gregory Hills and Gledswood Hills continue to attract buyers priced out of the inner suburbs. Infrastructure investment in the Macarthur corridor (the new train line extension, the Western Sydney Airport precinct) is underpinning demand here in a way that doesn't apply to comparable outer suburbs on the northern and eastern fringes.
What's Actually Driving the Slowdown?
Two things. First, the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% from November 2023 through to February 2025's cut, which eroded borrowing capacity by roughly 25–30% compared to 2021. A household that qualified for a $1.2M loan three years ago might qualify for $870,000 today. That's not a marginal difference — it's the difference between certain suburbs and others entirely.
Second, listing volumes lifted. REA Group data showed new Sydney listings up around 12% year-on-year in mid-2024, giving buyers genuine choice for the first time in years. When a buyer can walk away from one property and find another comparable home on the same street, vendors can't push the price. Simple as that.
What This Means If You're Buying, Selling or Refinancing
For buyers, this is the window. Negotiations are happening. Vendors are more willing to meet realistic valuations rather than holding out for peak-2022 expectations. If you've been pre-approved and sitting on the fence, the time to move is before rate cuts start pulling more buyers back into the market — because they will.
For those refinancing, a cooler market doesn't mean your property has lost value dramatically — especially in growth corridors like Macarthur. It does mean your lender's desktop valuation might come in slightly conservative, which is worth factoring into your strategy. Michael works with over 30 lenders, which means we can find the one whose valuation methodology works best for your specific property type and location.
Want to know how current market conditions affect your borrowing power in Oran Park, Camden or the Macarthur region? Call Michael on +61 420 699 983 or book a free strategy session.
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