Market Update
Fewer than half of Australia's capital city auctions are producing a sale. Cotality's preliminary data shows the weighted average clearance rate across the combined capitals fell to 40.7 per cent in the week to 8 November, the lowest result since April 2020. It arrived days after the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate to 4.85 per cent.
For buyers, that is a shift in bargaining power. For sellers, it is a reminder that pricing expectations set earlier this year no longer match what borrowers can afford to pay. Here is what the numbers say and how to use them, whether you are a first home buyer, an upgrader or an investor.
Auction clearance rates are a real-time read on buyer confidence. They arrive every week, well ahead of monthly price indices, and they capture something an index cannot: whether the people in the room are willing to bid at the price the vendor wants.
Sydney was the strongest capital in the latest Cotality figures at 45.1 per cent, which says plenty about the rest of the country. Analysis of the same data series suggests Brisbane has stayed below 40 per cent since May and averaged only about 25 per cent through October, its weakest result since April 2020. Preliminary rates are typically revised up slightly once final results are collected, but the direction is clear.
Cotality research director Tim Lawless has tied the downturn to affordability and serviceability constraints, amplified by four rate rises, weak confidence and cost-of-living pressure. He has also noted that buyers now have more leverage and less urgency than they did a year ago.
The auction data lines up with Cotality's October Home Value Index, which showed national values down 1.2 per cent for the month. It was the seventh consecutive monthly fall. Values are now 6.7 per cent below the peak and 2.8 per cent lower than a year ago.
| Measure | Latest result | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Capital city auction clearance rate (week to 8 Nov) | 40.7% | Cotality |
| Sydney clearance rate (strongest capital) | 45.1% | Cotality |
| National home values, October | -1.2% | Cotality |
| Brisbane home values, October | -2.0% | Cotality |
| Perth home values, October | -1.7% | Cotality |
| Sydney home values, October | -1.6% | Cotality |
| RBA cash rate (3 November) | 4.85% | RBA |
The pattern is national rather than local. The sharpest monthly falls have moved to Brisbane and Perth, the markets that led the 2024 and 2025 upswing, while Sydney and Melbourne have been grinding lower for longer.
Borrowing capacity is the engine room of any housing market. Each rate rise cuts the amount lenders will assess you for, because serviceability tests add a buffer on top of the actual rate. With the cash rate at 4.85 per cent and markets still weighing further risk, buyers are bidding with a smaller loan than they could have secured at the start of the year. When enough buyers hit that ceiling, auctions pass in.
We covered how lenders are passing on the hike, and why the gap between them matters, in our recent article on banks passing on the RBA increase. The practical point is that a borrower's real power now comes from the lender and loan structure they choose, not only the property they target.
An approval from six months ago may no longer reflect today's assessment rate. Confirm your limit before you bid, and set your own ceiling below it. Stress-test repayments at a rate a full percentage point higher than today.
Properties that fail to sell at auction are often negotiated afterwards, when vendors are more realistic. Buyers with finance already in place are the ones who can move quickly in that window.
Lower urgency lets you ask for longer settlement terms, a finance clause where appropriate, and a proper building inspection. Those protections are harder to secure when competition is heavy.
Sellers who need to transact should price to the current market, because holding out in a low-clearance environment tends to cost more in carrying costs than it recovers. Investors face a different calculation. Rents continue to rise nationally, but vacancy rates are lifting from tight levels and unit rents are softening in several capitals, so yield assumptions deserve a fresh check against actual serviceability.
Model different structures side by side, including fixed and variable splits, before you commit to a purchase.
Weekly clearance results, the next Cotality and PropTrack monthly indices in early December, and any further guidance from the RBA will show whether this is a pause in confidence or the start of a deeper correction. Cotality expects subdued conditions to persist through the rest of 2026 and into 2027.
The clearance rate is the share of reported auctions where the property sold on the day or just before. At 40.7%, fewer than half of the homes taken to auction across the combined capital cities found a buyer on the day. Cotality calculates the weighted average across the capitals, and preliminary figures are usually revised up a little once the final results arrive. The key signal is that sellers are meeting resistance on price, which gives prepared buyers more room to negotiate.
Nobody can time the bottom reliably. Cotality's index shows national values 6.7% below the peak and still falling, but the cash rate is 4.85% and markets are still pricing further risk. A buyer's real constraint is borrowing capacity and holding costs, not just the purchase price. Rather than waiting for a headline, work out a price and repayment you can sustain if rates rise again, confirm your pre-approval, and use the softer conditions to negotiate on the property in front of you.
A broker can check your borrowing capacity across a wide panel of lenders, which matters because serviceability assessments vary. We can also arrange an approval that is current before you bid, model repayments at a higher rate, and help you structure offers on properties that are passed in or sitting unsold. Mankin Finance has 140+ five-star Google reviews and lends to clients right across Australia.
Disclaimer: This article is general information only and does not constitute financial, mortgage, or credit advice. Market data is preliminary and may be revised. Before making any decision about buying, selling or refinancing, speak with a qualified mortgage broker or financial adviser who can assess your specific situation. Mankin Finance Pty Ltd holds Australian Credit Licence 389087.
Book a call with a Mankin Finance broker. We will confirm your borrowing capacity, compare lenders across our panel and get your approval ready before you bid.
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